Tag: Playoffs

Regular Season Outlook for Every NFL Team (Part 3/4)

NBP REVIEWS - NFL
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#17 Houston Texans

2020 record: 4-12-0

2021 record prediction:2-15-0

The Houston Texans had a top 15 offense last year, but their defense was ranked 29th in the league. Their defense has not improved whatsoever because they did not have many draft picks to help with any position needs. In addition to their defense remaining one of the worst in the NFL, their offense will also be worse than previous years due to the entire Deshaun Watson situation.  Watson is almost certainly not playing this upcoming season, and no one truly knows when he will see another snap in the NFL because the sexual misconduct allegations are drastic. Even if Watson were to return this year, there are numerous rumours of him wanting to leave the Texans due to their lack of success and disorganization in the front office. Although the Texans have Tyrod Taylor to start at quarterback, Taylor is definitely a downgrade from Watson. Watson just had his best season throwing for almost 5,000 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Meanwhile, Taylor has not been a starting quarterback since 2017 with the Buffalo Bills. Not only will he likely be rusty, but he does not have many weapons to rely on when he needs to move the ball. Brandin Cooks is a good wide receiver, as he caught over 1,000 yards last year with the Texans, but he is the only dangerous target for Taylor. Without Watson to will his team to a few victories, I do not see how the Texans can win more than a couple games this year. They will be in the running for a lottery pick for the 2022 NFL Draft, which will be their first opening round draft pick since the 2019 draft, since they lost a lot of draft capital due to various trades conducted by former general manager and head coach Bill O’Brien. 

#18 Jacksonville Jaguars

2020 record: 1-15-0

2021 record prediction: 3-14-0

The Jaguars are still far away from returning back to where they were during the 2017-2018 season. Since that year, they lost numerous stars on their defense, which was a major part of their AFC Championship run. They are back to stage one of the rebuilding process, but they theoretically have their franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence looked like a premium talent during his college days at Clemson, but everyone knows the NFL is a completely different animal than college football. The Jaguars had four relatively high draft picks, including two first round and two second round picks during the 2021 NFL Draft. They also acquired Lawrence’s backfield teammate, Travis Etienne, but it looks like the undrafted rookie out of the 2020 draft, James Robinson, will start in the season opener. Robinson had a great year last season as he ran for over 1,000 yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Lawrence will have one decent target in D.J. Chark Jr. to rely on, but the Jaguars could do with another receiving weapon in the near future. I believe the Jaguars are headed in the right direction, and they will be able to get back into playoff conversations a few years from now, but they are still needing to acquire some more talent over the next couple of years. 

#19 Pittsburgh Steelers

2020 record: 12-4-0

2021 record prediction: 11-6-0

The Pittsburgh Steelers had an amazing start to the year last season by winning their first eleven games, but they lost four of their last five to end the regular season. They also lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Cleveland Browns, and it was a blowout for a majority of the game. The Steelers will be about the same team as last year. They will still have an elite defense in the NFL, but the question mark is their offensive production. Last year, they were 25th in the league in total offense, which is a major reason for their collapse toward the back half of their 2020 campaign. Ben Roethlisberger is nearing 40 years of age, and the arm strength looked much like Drew Brees at some points during last year. He had pretty good production via his numbers last season, but the Steelers have to think about how much longer he will be able to be a serviceable quarterback in the league. They have Dwayne Haskins as a young backup, but it looks like they will give Roethlisberger at least another season before benching him for Haskins. The Steelers drafted talented running back Najee Harris, which will relieve a lot of pressure off Roethlisberger because they should have a much better rushing attack this season compared to last year. The blocking for the run game was abysmal from the offensive line, but assuming they can block a little bit better, Harris will be able to have decent production his rookie year with the team. The Steelers lost a talented defensive stud in Bud Dupree this offseason, but their defense should still be one of the best in the league. The only reason I predict the Steelers to lose a couple more games this season is due to the fact that they have the most difficult schedule in the entire league. The AFC is a stacked conference and the Steelers are playing in the hardest division within the conference, but they will definitely be fighting for a wild card spot in the playoffs. If they can pull off an upset or two, they will be guaranteed a wild card seed, but it might come down to tiebreakers with the Indianapolis Colts. 

#20 Minnesota Vikings

2020 record: 7-9-0

2021 record prediction: 10-7-0

The Minnesota Vikings are the exact opposite of the Pittsburgh Steelers, as the Vikings have one of the best offenses, but one of the worst defenses in the league. Looking at the talent on the Vikings offense, the season looks promising for the squad. Kirk Cousins can utilize three different weapons in Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen. Although they had a horrendous defense last season, they have improved immensely on that side of the ball this offseason. Two marquee players to keep your eye on are Patrick Peterson and Xavier Woods, which should help their pass defense. They also acquired a defensive lineman to help with the depth there, and they have a few players returning from injury/opting out of last season. The Vikings have a good chance at making a run for a wild card seed in the NFC, especially with what should be a much improved defense alongside an elite offense. Justin Jefferson had an amazing rookie season, and he will likely take another big step toward becoming a top wide receiver in the league. They do not have a super tough schedule, so I can easily see them attaining double digit wins this season and making the playoff race fun to watch in the final weeks of the season.

#21 New England Patriots

2020 record: 7-9-0

2021 record prediction: 9-8-0

The New England Patriots had a peculiar season in 2020, many of their key defensive players opted out and Cam Newton started at quarterback without being able to spend much time with the team before the start of the season. Newton even had to sit out a game due to contracting COVID-19, and he looked off ever since he returned from the health and safety protocol. After being able to play preseason games and get a full offseason with the team, Newton should be much improved and more confident with the offensive scheme heading into the 2021 season. This may be Newton’s last chance to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, so he will be giving maximum effort the entire season to show the other 31 teams what he can still achieve. However, being in the AFC is a difficult challenge, so it will be hard to achieve double digit wins this season. I predict they will win just nine games, which is still a couple games away from even getting a wild card spot in the playoffs. Although, I could see them being a sleeper team for the upcoming season because everyone is writing them off as a mediocre team. The Patriots could easily sneak into a wild card spot and win ten or eleven games this year, but it really depends on if their offense can get things going and keep it going all year. Newton will be looking to prove to himself and everyone watching that he still has what it takes to be a good quarterback in the league, so I believe the Patriots will be one of the more interesting teams to watch as the season progresses. The Patriots will likely not make the playoffs, but they are the one team that I think could make a sneaky run into the playoffs this season. 

#22 Miami Dolphins 

2020 record: 10-6-0

2021 record prediction:11-6-0

The Miami Dolphins are coming off of a great season as they went from 5-11 in 2019 to 10-6 in 2020. Heading into this season, they are going all in on their first round draft pick Tua Tagovailoa as the starter heading into this year. He split time with Ryan Fitzpatrick last season, so there was never a solidified starter for the Dolphins throughout a majority of their 2020 campaign. The Dolphins drafted wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who had a rapport with Tagovailoa during their college football days at Alabama. Alongside Waddle, the Dolphins retained DeVante Parker who has been a solid wide receiver that is capable of having 1,000+ yards receiving in a season. Last year, the Dolphins defense was ranked in the top five of the entire league, and they should be about the same or even better for the 2021 season. If Tagovailoa can limit turnovers, then the Dolphins will be in consideration for a wild card spot this year. I predict they will be slightly improved upon last season and find a way to collect eleven wins and their playoff fate will be decided by tiebreakers with the Steelers and Colts. Given the Dolphins were just left out of the playoffs last year despite having double digit wins, I believe they will find a way to make it this year. Their defense will keep them in all of their games, it just depends on if their offense will make enough plays to win the game in the 4th quarter. The only hole is their running back position, but Myles Gaskin averaged over four yards per carry last season, so he should be good enough to get the job done on the ground. 

#23 Las Vegas Raiders

2020 record: 8-8-0

2021 record prediction:9-8-0

The Las Vegas Raiders have a pretty good team on paper, but their defense let them down numerous times last season. They were ranked 30th in total defense, and not many teams will have winning seasons with a defense ranked that low. Ever since Khalil Mack was traded from the Raiders to the Bears, the Raiders defense has been porous. Unless the Raiders defense can start firing on all cylinders, I do not see how they achieve double digit wins this season. Their offense was ranked 8th in the league, which is near elite status. Their schedule is ranked the 8th toughest in the league, which also makes it hard to predict 10+ wins for them. They are stacked with talent on the offensive side of the ball: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs III, Darren Waller, and even Hunter Renfrow. The Raiders offense will likely be ranked in the top 10 again, their entire season depends upon performance of their defense. They have a couple good players on that side of the ball, but they need some key players to step up and make plays whenever they have to get a stop. For this season, I do not see their defense doing much better than in 2020, so I have them performing almost identically to their 2020 campaign. 

#24 Los Angeles Chargers

2020 record: 7-9-0

2021 record prediction: 10-7-0
The Los Angeles Chargers ended the 2020 season with four wins in a row, and almost all of their losses were by a single possession. Coming into the 2021 season, I expect a few of those close games to go their way because Justin Herbert will have a full season of experience under his belt. Their strength of schedule is certainly manageable, and I believe they are going to continue the momentum they had at the end of last year. Herbert looked like a franchise quarterback as he threw 31 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions in his rookie season, and I believe he will have similar numbers this year as well. He also has the same targets to throw to as he did last season: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and they even added Jared Cook for the upcoming season. Cook will be a great addition to the team, and make the offense one of the better one’s in the NFL. The Chargers defense was ranked 20th in the league last season, and if they can improve by just two or three spots, then I believe they can achieve a 10+ win season. I do not believe they will be quite ready to push for a playoff seed, but I think that is a definite possibility heading into the 2022 season. However, the Chargers are a team that will always be a tough outing, even for the top teams in the league. It would not even surprise me if they could steal a game from the Kansas City Chiefs and upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For this season, I believe the Chargers will just spoil playoff hopes for other teams, but 2022 will be their playoff opportunity.

Viability of Expanding the College Football Playoff

The first college football champions were named in 1869, as Princeton and Rutgers shared the crown for the inaugural season. Since that season, college football has undergone three distinct eras for deciding the national champion.

The first era was the National Championship Foundation (NCF) which started in 1869 and ended after the 1997 season. During this period, the national champions were selected based on their national ranking without even playing a championship game. Since the champion was chosen solely on their ranking, there were numerous co-champions throughout this era.

Starting in the 1998 season, the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) replaced the NCF and instituted a championship game to be played between the first and second-ranked teams. The BCS also added a computer ranking system to assist the human ranking system, which purportedly guaranteed the two best teams were picked to play each other. While this system was an upgrade from the NCF, controversies about deservedness continued to surround the national title conversation.

The 2011 college football season is an egregious example. LSU beat Alabama in the regular season, but Alabama was able to play in a rematch against them for the national title. Alabama did not play in the SEC Conference Championship game, and they were still given a chance to play in the national championship game at the expense of a deserving Oklahoma State team. Most of the computer rankings had Oklahoma State ranked at #2, but the consensus swayed toward Alabama staying at #2 and Oklahoma State sitting at #3.

After numerous arguments about which teams deserved a chance at the title, people began talking about expanding the format to a college football playoff model. These discussions led to the beginning of the College Football Playoff (CFP) era, which started following the 2013 college football season.

The CFP was formed so that a clear champion could be named and leave little room for any controversy over which teams did not get a fair chance at a title. However, the current CFP format only allows four teams to compete for the championship, which has still left out numerous teams that people argue deserve a chance at a championship.

Some examples of deserving teams are the undefeated UCF Knights on two separate occasions, the undefeated 2020 Cincinnati Bearcats, and the undefeated 2020 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers.  UCF beat a very good #7 Auburn team in the 2018 Peach Bowl, Cincinnati almost defeated #9 Georgia in the 2020 Peach Bowl and Coastal Carolina defeated #16 BYU in the 2020 regular season. The lack of consideration for these teams sparked discussions about expanding the four-team playoff to eight or sixteen teams. 

Multitudinous reasons exist to expand the CFP, but there is considerable debate about how many teams should be added. Fox Sports college football commentator and analyst Joel Klatt has stated that expansion would help increase the revenue in college football, which programs need due to the amount of income lost because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

An increase in the number of games played would definitively improve the revenue of everyone involved in the CFP. Since there would be a larger amount of important postseason games to watch, the ratings will also be favorable compared to the current bowl game system.

Another reason for expansion is the decreased importance of bowl games due to the increased importance placed on the CFP. Since the bowl games are continually decreasing in importance, many players opt out of playing in them. When players opt out of bowl games, then the anticipation wanes for the games and ratings tank. Increasing the playoff would get rid of the bowl game issues, while simultaneously increasing the ratings for the CFP.

There is also a major discrepancy in recruiting. Since most of the same teams make the playoffs every year, all the high-level recruits opt to join the teams that participate in the CFP. The top 6 recruiting classes of 2021 are all teams that have won a game in the CFP: Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia, Clemson, and Oregon. The skill gap between the higher echelon of teams continues to increase from every other team.

Finally, the most obvious reason for expansion is the need to include teams from the smaller conferences and give them a chance to play for the title. Many teams from these conferences (Group of Five) seem to be able to compete with higher quality teams, but they do not get a chance due to their poorer strength of schedule. However, why should they be punished for a weaker schedule if their conference is not as strong as the more prominent conferences (Power Five)?

Numerous Group of Five teams have been undefeated, yet they were still ranked lower than Power Five teams with multiple losses. Since the rankings skew this favorably toward Power Five teams, the only way to include smaller teams would be to expand the playoff to at least eight teams. 

These arguments in favor of expanding the CFP are valid, but there are numerous concerns with expanding it.

One major predicament is the extended number of games that college athletes would be forced to play each season. Since these athletes are not given paychecks, it would be unfair to force them to possibly jeopardize their NFL chances with extra collegiate games.

Another idea to take into consideration is the location of where the games are going to be played. The game locations depend on how much the CFP expands but raises an important point that needs to be sorted out before thoughts of expansion can be entertained.

The regular season will become even more devalued if the playoffs are expanded. As the number of teams allowed into the CFP increases, the importance of the regular season decreases.

A single loss used to be backbreaking to a team’s national championship aspirations, but now teams with one loss usually have a chance with the four-team playoff. If this model were to be expanded to eight or more teams, then there could be two or three loss teams with a chance of making the CFP. While the playoffs would possibly be more exciting, the tradeoff is losing all excitement for regular season matchups.

Alongside this, the rivalry games between teams would lose most of their meaning. Even if a team pulled off an upset in a rivalry game, the team that was beaten will still have a strong possibility of making the CFP.

Much like the regular season, college bowl games have lost their meaning since the playoff was introduced to college football. The coveted history of playing and winning in the Rose Bowl is insignificant to current teams because all meaning of the sport has been pushed into the CFP. If a team does not make the playoffs, then the consolation prize is playing in a bowl game that people will forget about by next year. 

Although the reasons for resisting CFP expansion are reasonable, there are solutions to most of the concerns.

The increased number of games to be played per season is a major issue, but there are ways to address it. The immediate answer would be to pay the players in addition to their scholarships, which would make playing the extra games sensible. By paying the players in college, they will not feel as much of a need to save their bodies for the NFL. Additionally, more players may decide to participate in other bowl games if they receive a paycheck throughout their college careers.

As for the location of the additional games, one solution could be to play them at the higher-seeded team’s stadium. Some college football fans would dislike this because it would emulate the model used for the NFL playoffs, but it would reward teams for playing well in the regular season. By giving teams with higher seeds a home-field advantage, the argument that the regular season is irrelevant would become flawed. Home-field advantage is a major reason given as to why teams win tough matchups, so giving the better-performing regular season team that advantage would make the regular season important again.

The regular season will be less important if the playoff expands, but the same was true as the model moved from the BCS to a four-team playoff. While the regular season will lose most of its meaning, the CFP will have more teams and games to increase its meaning. Once the change from BCS to a four-team playoff occurred, the decision was made to allow more leeway in the regular season. Rivalry games may be less meaningful when concerning the playoffs, but the competitiveness and history will remain.

When thinking about one of the NFL’s rivalries, Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers, there is still extra meaning and motivation for that game over others. College teams will be more motivated and determined to defeat their rival, so those games will keep their uniqueness.

The last argument is bowl games will not be able to keep their meaning, which cannot be refuted. However, if the CFP expands to include more teams, then the major bowl games will matter just as much as they did previously. The smaller bowl games like the Birmingham Bowl, Outback Bowl, and New Mexico Bowl have already meant nothing to most college football fans. If the New Year’s Day Bowl games like the Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, etc. were all included in a 16-team playoff, then they would be more relevant than they are currently. 

It took 16 years for the BCS model to transition toward the four-team playoff, so it might be many years until further expansion is explored. However, since the expansion of the CFP is feasible, many conversations are about how many teams should be included in the new model. It is likely to be expanded to just six or eight teams, but is that the optimal number of teams? As Klatt has stated recently, “We need to expand to sixteen, and we need to do that quickly. And we need to do it quickly for the long-term health of the sport.”

I completely agree with Klatt because the sport will continue to see the same teams in the CFP until expansion occurs, which is detrimental to its health and growth. If the playoff was expanded to 16 teams, then there would be a wider variety of teams every season. Multiple smaller schools from the group of five conferences will be able to participate alongside some of the top-tier teams in the Power Five conferences.

For example, the 2020 CFP would have included Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, and BYU if the 16-team model had been implemented for this past season. Not only do the group of five teams get an opportunity to compete, but some less notable power five teams also get a chance to play. Iowa State, Indiana, Northwestern, and Iowa would be some of the lower-tier power five teams that would have been included in the playoff this past year.

The main issue with the 16-team model is the extra number of games played by each team, as they would need to play two more games than they do currently. However, they already added two games to the season since the addition of the BCS and four-team playoff. So, adding two more games may take a while, but it has been done before.

As the NCAA is expected to start paying its players relatively soon, the possibility of expansion increases. With the passing of legislation in Alabama that allows student-athletes to be paid for use of name/image and likeness, many other states with prominent college programs will follow suit so they do not fall behind in the recruiting process. Although the CFP will likely expand to eight teams first, further expansion of the playoff seems inevitable. 

NFL Playoff Outlook and Predictions

This season has been an unpredictable rollercoaster with the numerous COVID-19 outbreaks, but the NFL playoffs have finally arrived. 

The layout of the playoffs is a little bit different because they added an extra wild card team and only the #1 seed from each conference attains a bye week. So, the Chiefs and the Packers are the only playoff teams bypassing the first round of the playoffs. 

It seems like there are multiple teams that could make a run to the Super Bowl this year, especially with four 11-5 teams making the playoffs in the AFC. The AFC playoffs are so deep this year that the 10-6 Miami Dolphins couldn’t make it. 

All in all, these playoffs should be entertaining and fun to watch. As the NFL Wild Card games begin this afternoon, and there are some great matchups to watch this weekend. With three games occurring today and three more games tomorrow, here are my betting picks and predictions for the games:

Game: #7 Indianapolis Colts vs #2 Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Bills win and cover the 6.5 points. Also, I’ll take the over on the 51 points. (This game will be close, but the Bills’ hot streak looks too good to be stopped in the first round of the playoffs.)

Game: #6 Los Angeles Rams vs #3 Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Seahawks win and cover the 3 points. Also, I’ll take the under on the 42 points (Both matchups in the regular season were under 42 total points.)

Game: #5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs #4 Washington Football Team

Prediction: Buccaneers win and cover the 8 points. Also, I’ll take the over on the 44.5 points (I expect the game to be close in the first half, then the Buccaneers pull away in the second half.)

Game: #5 Baltimore Ravens vs #4 Tennessee Titans

Prediction: PIcking my first upset so far, Titans get the win against the Ravens at home. Also, I’ll take the over on the 54.5 points because of the porous Titans defense, although the over/under will be very close. (Their regular season matchup scored a total of 54 points.)

Game: #2 New Orleans Saints vs #7 Chicago Bears

Prediction: I’ll take the Saints to win, but the Bears will cover the 10 points. Also, I’ll take the under on the 47.5 points. (Neither offense looks effective on a weekly basis, but the Saints defense is one of the best in the playoffs. Bears should be able to keep it somewhat close throughout the game though.)

Game: #3 Pittsburgh Steelers vs #6 Cleveland Browns 

Prediction: I’ll take the Browns to upset the Steelers on the road, and I’ll take the under on the 47.5 points. (The Steelers have looked awful the past month, except for the second half against the Colts in week 15. For some reason, they rested in week 16, so I expect them to come out slow against the Browns which will punish them in the end.