#17 Houston Texans
2020 record: 4-12-0
2021 record prediction:2-15-0
The Houston Texans had a top 15 offense last year, but their defense was ranked 29th in the league. Their defense has not improved whatsoever because they did not have many draft picks to help with any position needs. In addition to their defense remaining one of the worst in the NFL, their offense will also be worse than previous years due to the entire Deshaun Watson situation. Watson is almost certainly not playing this upcoming season, and no one truly knows when he will see another snap in the NFL because the sexual misconduct allegations are drastic. Even if Watson were to return this year, there are numerous rumours of him wanting to leave the Texans due to their lack of success and disorganization in the front office. Although the Texans have Tyrod Taylor to start at quarterback, Taylor is definitely a downgrade from Watson. Watson just had his best season throwing for almost 5,000 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Meanwhile, Taylor has not been a starting quarterback since 2017 with the Buffalo Bills. Not only will he likely be rusty, but he does not have many weapons to rely on when he needs to move the ball. Brandin Cooks is a good wide receiver, as he caught over 1,000 yards last year with the Texans, but he is the only dangerous target for Taylor. Without Watson to will his team to a few victories, I do not see how the Texans can win more than a couple games this year. They will be in the running for a lottery pick for the 2022 NFL Draft, which will be their first opening round draft pick since the 2019 draft, since they lost a lot of draft capital due to various trades conducted by former general manager and head coach Bill O’Brien.
#18 Jacksonville Jaguars
2020 record: 1-15-0
2021 record prediction: 3-14-0
The Jaguars are still far away from returning back to where they were during the 2017-2018 season. Since that year, they lost numerous stars on their defense, which was a major part of their AFC Championship run. They are back to stage one of the rebuilding process, but they theoretically have their franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence looked like a premium talent during his college days at Clemson, but everyone knows the NFL is a completely different animal than college football. The Jaguars had four relatively high draft picks, including two first round and two second round picks during the 2021 NFL Draft. They also acquired Lawrence’s backfield teammate, Travis Etienne, but it looks like the undrafted rookie out of the 2020 draft, James Robinson, will start in the season opener. Robinson had a great year last season as he ran for over 1,000 yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Lawrence will have one decent target in D.J. Chark Jr. to rely on, but the Jaguars could do with another receiving weapon in the near future. I believe the Jaguars are headed in the right direction, and they will be able to get back into playoff conversations a few years from now, but they are still needing to acquire some more talent over the next couple of years.
#19 Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 record: 12-4-0
2021 record prediction: 11-6-0
The Pittsburgh Steelers had an amazing start to the year last season by winning their first eleven games, but they lost four of their last five to end the regular season. They also lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Cleveland Browns, and it was a blowout for a majority of the game. The Steelers will be about the same team as last year. They will still have an elite defense in the NFL, but the question mark is their offensive production. Last year, they were 25th in the league in total offense, which is a major reason for their collapse toward the back half of their 2020 campaign. Ben Roethlisberger is nearing 40 years of age, and the arm strength looked much like Drew Brees at some points during last year. He had pretty good production via his numbers last season, but the Steelers have to think about how much longer he will be able to be a serviceable quarterback in the league. They have Dwayne Haskins as a young backup, but it looks like they will give Roethlisberger at least another season before benching him for Haskins. The Steelers drafted talented running back Najee Harris, which will relieve a lot of pressure off Roethlisberger because they should have a much better rushing attack this season compared to last year. The blocking for the run game was abysmal from the offensive line, but assuming they can block a little bit better, Harris will be able to have decent production his rookie year with the team. The Steelers lost a talented defensive stud in Bud Dupree this offseason, but their defense should still be one of the best in the league. The only reason I predict the Steelers to lose a couple more games this season is due to the fact that they have the most difficult schedule in the entire league. The AFC is a stacked conference and the Steelers are playing in the hardest division within the conference, but they will definitely be fighting for a wild card spot in the playoffs. If they can pull off an upset or two, they will be guaranteed a wild card seed, but it might come down to tiebreakers with the Indianapolis Colts.
#20 Minnesota Vikings
2020 record: 7-9-0
2021 record prediction: 10-7-0
The Minnesota Vikings are the exact opposite of the Pittsburgh Steelers, as the Vikings have one of the best offenses, but one of the worst defenses in the league. Looking at the talent on the Vikings offense, the season looks promising for the squad. Kirk Cousins can utilize three different weapons in Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen. Although they had a horrendous defense last season, they have improved immensely on that side of the ball this offseason. Two marquee players to keep your eye on are Patrick Peterson and Xavier Woods, which should help their pass defense. They also acquired a defensive lineman to help with the depth there, and they have a few players returning from injury/opting out of last season. The Vikings have a good chance at making a run for a wild card seed in the NFC, especially with what should be a much improved defense alongside an elite offense. Justin Jefferson had an amazing rookie season, and he will likely take another big step toward becoming a top wide receiver in the league. They do not have a super tough schedule, so I can easily see them attaining double digit wins this season and making the playoff race fun to watch in the final weeks of the season.
#21 New England Patriots
2020 record: 7-9-0
2021 record prediction: 9-8-0
The New England Patriots had a peculiar season in 2020, many of their key defensive players opted out and Cam Newton started at quarterback without being able to spend much time with the team before the start of the season. Newton even had to sit out a game due to contracting COVID-19, and he looked off ever since he returned from the health and safety protocol. After being able to play preseason games and get a full offseason with the team, Newton should be much improved and more confident with the offensive scheme heading into the 2021 season. This may be Newton’s last chance to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, so he will be giving maximum effort the entire season to show the other 31 teams what he can still achieve. However, being in the AFC is a difficult challenge, so it will be hard to achieve double digit wins this season. I predict they will win just nine games, which is still a couple games away from even getting a wild card spot in the playoffs. Although, I could see them being a sleeper team for the upcoming season because everyone is writing them off as a mediocre team. The Patriots could easily sneak into a wild card spot and win ten or eleven games this year, but it really depends on if their offense can get things going and keep it going all year. Newton will be looking to prove to himself and everyone watching that he still has what it takes to be a good quarterback in the league, so I believe the Patriots will be one of the more interesting teams to watch as the season progresses. The Patriots will likely not make the playoffs, but they are the one team that I think could make a sneaky run into the playoffs this season.
#22 Miami Dolphins
2020 record: 10-6-0
2021 record prediction:11-6-0
The Miami Dolphins are coming off of a great season as they went from 5-11 in 2019 to 10-6 in 2020. Heading into this season, they are going all in on their first round draft pick Tua Tagovailoa as the starter heading into this year. He split time with Ryan Fitzpatrick last season, so there was never a solidified starter for the Dolphins throughout a majority of their 2020 campaign. The Dolphins drafted wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who had a rapport with Tagovailoa during their college football days at Alabama. Alongside Waddle, the Dolphins retained DeVante Parker who has been a solid wide receiver that is capable of having 1,000+ yards receiving in a season. Last year, the Dolphins defense was ranked in the top five of the entire league, and they should be about the same or even better for the 2021 season. If Tagovailoa can limit turnovers, then the Dolphins will be in consideration for a wild card spot this year. I predict they will be slightly improved upon last season and find a way to collect eleven wins and their playoff fate will be decided by tiebreakers with the Steelers and Colts. Given the Dolphins were just left out of the playoffs last year despite having double digit wins, I believe they will find a way to make it this year. Their defense will keep them in all of their games, it just depends on if their offense will make enough plays to win the game in the 4th quarter. The only hole is their running back position, but Myles Gaskin averaged over four yards per carry last season, so he should be good enough to get the job done on the ground.
#23 Las Vegas Raiders
2020 record: 8-8-0
2021 record prediction:9-8-0
The Las Vegas Raiders have a pretty good team on paper, but their defense let them down numerous times last season. They were ranked 30th in total defense, and not many teams will have winning seasons with a defense ranked that low. Ever since Khalil Mack was traded from the Raiders to the Bears, the Raiders defense has been porous. Unless the Raiders defense can start firing on all cylinders, I do not see how they achieve double digit wins this season. Their offense was ranked 8th in the league, which is near elite status. Their schedule is ranked the 8th toughest in the league, which also makes it hard to predict 10+ wins for them. They are stacked with talent on the offensive side of the ball: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs III, Darren Waller, and even Hunter Renfrow. The Raiders offense will likely be ranked in the top 10 again, their entire season depends upon performance of their defense. They have a couple good players on that side of the ball, but they need some key players to step up and make plays whenever they have to get a stop. For this season, I do not see their defense doing much better than in 2020, so I have them performing almost identically to their 2020 campaign.
#24 Los Angeles Chargers
2020 record: 7-9-0
2021 record prediction: 10-7-0
The Los Angeles Chargers ended the 2020 season with four wins in a row, and almost all of their losses were by a single possession. Coming into the 2021 season, I expect a few of those close games to go their way because Justin Herbert will have a full season of experience under his belt. Their strength of schedule is certainly manageable, and I believe they are going to continue the momentum they had at the end of last year. Herbert looked like a franchise quarterback as he threw 31 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions in his rookie season, and I believe he will have similar numbers this year as well. He also has the same targets to throw to as he did last season: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and they even added Jared Cook for the upcoming season. Cook will be a great addition to the team, and make the offense one of the better one’s in the NFL. The Chargers defense was ranked 20th in the league last season, and if they can improve by just two or three spots, then I believe they can achieve a 10+ win season. I do not believe they will be quite ready to push for a playoff seed, but I think that is a definite possibility heading into the 2022 season. However, the Chargers are a team that will always be a tough outing, even for the top teams in the league. It would not even surprise me if they could steal a game from the Kansas City Chiefs and upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For this season, I believe the Chargers will just spoil playoff hopes for other teams, but 2022 will be their playoff opportunity.